by Maria Konnikova (Purchase on Amazon)
A selection of quotes from this book:
We tend to be overly optimistic when we map out timelines, goals, targets, and other horizons. We look at the best-case scenario instead of using the past to determine what a more realistic scenario would look like.
The more you overestimate your own skill relative to luck, the less you learn from what the environment was trying to tell you, and the worse your decisions become.
We need to train ourselves to see the world in a probabilistic light - and even then, we often ignore the numbers in favor of our own experience. We believe what we want to see, not what research shows.
Overconfidence in your opinion comes from thinking you know more than you do simply because you have more information available to you.
To our minds, 99 percent, even 90 percent, basically means 100 percent. The offer of a bet makes you pause. Now that you have something real at stake, you have to reevaluate just how sure of a sure thing your opinion really is. You become aware of the possibility of your being mistaken.
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